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Game Notes: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (1-Oct-23)

It’s a AFC East divisional test, the 3-0 Miami Dolphins lock up with the 2-1 Buffalo Bills on Sunday with kickoff at 1:00PM ET. They last met with the Bills upending the Dolphins 32-29 last year on Saturday, December 17. Of late, the Bills hold the edge 8-2 in their latest head-to-head meetings.

And the Bills have compiled a 9-1 mark over their last 10 games.

The Dolphins have won their last 4 games, they have also won their last 2 games on the road.

The Bills have won their last 2 games, and they have also won their last 5 games at home.

In the odds, the Bills are 2.5 point favorites. The over/under currently sits at 53.5. The Dolphins are 7-3-0 against the spread.

The Dolphins are paced by Tua Tagovailoa who has thrown for 1,024 yards, 8 td passes with 2 interceptions this year. Raheem Mostert has barreled for 240 yards with 6 TDs. Tyreek Hill has 25 receptions for 412 yards and 4 TDs.

The Bills are paced by Josh Allen who has thrown for 728 yards, 5 td passes with 4 interceptions this year. James Cook has rushed for 267 yards with 0 TDs. Stefon Diggs has 25 catches for 279 yards and 1 TDs.

The Dolphins are the team to beat in the AFC East while the Bills are in 2nd in the AFC East.

Tua Tagovailoa is 1-4 as a starter against the Bills. Josh Allen is 16-4 in his last 20 starts. Josh Allen is 8-2 against the Dolphins as a starter.

Both competitors rank among the best on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills are listed among the tops on the defensive side of the ball at present in the league.

The Dolphins come in off a victory over the Denver Broncos 70-20, and the Bills arrive after a strong showing against the Washington Commanders 37-3.

Next week the Dolphins host the the New York Giants and the Bills visit the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Game Details

• Matchup: Miami Dolphins (MIA) at Buffalo Bills (BUF)
• Date: October 1, 2023
• Time: 1:00PM ET
• Stadium: Highmark Stadium
• TV: CBS
• Highmark Stadium Kick-Off Weather Forecast: Clouds; 73F; 65% humidity; wind: NNW 5 mph

TEAM STATS COMPARISON

2023 LAST 10
MIA BUF MIA BUF
Record 3-0 2-1 5-5 9-1
Home Record 1-0 1-0 3-1 5-0
Away Record 2-0 1-1 2-4 4-1
Points Scored/Game 43.3 30.3 27.5 29.6
Points Allowed/Game 23.7 11.7 22.9 17.0
Point Differential +59 +56 +46 +126
Yards/Game 550.3 383.3 393.3 369.4
Yards Allowed/Game 361.3 253.0 326.0 298.7
Passing Yards/Game 362.0 234.0 241.2 218.3
Passing Yards Allowed/Game 231.3 142.3 211.5 196.8
Rushing Yards/Game 188.3 149.3 118.8 151.1
Rushing Yards Allowed/Game 130.0 110.7 89.6 101.9
First Downs/Game 27.3 22.7 18.7 22.1
First Downs Allowed/Game 23.0 13.7 18.8 17.4
3rd Down Conv % 46.4 51.2 32.6 48.8
Opp 3rd Down Conv % 45.2 31.0 40.4 33.3
Turnover Margin +2 +4 -3 +5
Total Games 3 3 10 10

Miami Dolphins 2023 Leaders

PASSING C-A YDS TD INT SK
Tua Tagovailoa 72-101 1,024 8 2 1
RUSHING ATT YDS TD LNG
Raheem Mostert 41 240 6 43
RECEIVING REC YDS TD LNG
Tyreek Hill 25 412 4 54

Buffalo Bills 2023 Leaders

PASSING C-A YDS TD INT SK
Josh Allen 80-110 728 5 4 7
RUSHING ATT YDS TD LNG
James Cook 44 267 0 36
RECEIVING REC YDS TD LNG
Stefon Diggs 25 279 1 30

Last 10 Meetings

DATE TIME RESULT
Sat 17-Dec-22 8:15PM BUFFALO BILLS d. Miami Dolphins 32-29
Sun 25-Sep-22 1:00PM MIAMI DOLPHINS d. Buffalo Bills 21-19
Sun 31-Oct-21 1:00PM BUFFALO BILLS d. Miami Dolphins 26-11
Sun 19-Sep-21 1:00PM Buffalo Bills d. MIAMI DOLPHINS 35-0
Sun 03-Jan-21 1:00PM BUFFALO BILLS d. Miami Dolphins 56-26
Sun 20-Sep-20 1:00PM Buffalo Bills d. MIAMI DOLPHINS 31-28
Sun 17-Nov-19 1:00PM Buffalo Bills d. MIAMI DOLPHINS 37-20
Sun 20-Oct-19 1:00PM BUFFALO BILLS d. Miami Dolphins 31-21
Sun 30-Dec-18 1:00PM BUFFALO BILLS d. Miami Dolphins 42-17
Sun 02-Dec-18 1:00PM MIAMI DOLPHINS d. Buffalo Bills 21-17

Head-to-Head Stats (last 10)

MIA BUF
Last 10 Record 2-8 8-2
Home Record 2-3 5-0
Away Record 0-5 3-2

QB Career Comparison

CMP-ATT PCT YDs TDs INTs SKs PS REC (GMs)
Tua Tagovailoa 780-1179 66.2% 9,039 60 25 62 0-0 (0)
Josh Allen 1684-2676 62.9% 19,125 143 64 158 4-4 (8)

Starting QB Win-Loss Trends

• Tua Tagovailoa W-L last 20 games as a starter: 14-6
• Tua Tagovailoa last 20 games vs. Buffalo Bills: 1-4

• Josh Allen W-L last 20 games as a starter: 16-4
• Josh Allen last 20 games vs. Miami Dolphins: 8-2

Player Trends

• Tua Tagovailoa has 12 straight games with at least one passing TD
• Tua Tagovailoa has 5 straight games with 200+ passing yards & at least one passing TD
• Raheem Mostert has 3 straight games with at least one rushing TD
• Tyreek Hill has 3 straight games with a TD catch
• Tyreek Hill has 3 straight games with at least 5+ catches

• Josh Allen has 11 straight games with at least one passing TD
• Josh Allen has 4 straight games with 200+ passing yards & at least one passing TD
• Stefon Diggs has 4 straight games with at least 50+ receiving yards
• Stefon Diggs has 4 straight games with at least 5+ catches

Game Injuries

Miami Dolphins:

Buffalo Bills:

Betting Odds

• Favorite: Buffalo Bills
• Spread: 2.5
• Over/Under: 53.5

Betting Trends

Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills
Last 5 ATS 5-0-0 2-3-0
Last 10 ATS 7-3-0 5-5-0
Last 10 ATS at Home 3-6-1
Last 10 ATS on Road 6-4-0
Last 10 ATS as a Favorite 5-5-0
Last 10 ATS as a Home Favorite 3-6-1
Last 10 ATS as an Underdog 7-3-0
Last 10 ATS as a Road Underdog 4-6-0
Last 10 Over-Under 6-4-0 5-5-0

Latest Super Bowl Odds

• Miami Dolphins: +800
• Buffalo Bills: +1000

Dolphins vs. Bills Game Prediction

• Oddsmakers: Buffalo Bills d. Miami Dolphins 29-25
• GFA Model: Buffalo Bills d. Miami Dolphins 34-24

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