Packers vs. Patriots
A data-first view of offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and the statistical edges that shape this matchup. Figures combine nflverse play-by-play, credited team statistics, and season team totals.
01 / TEAM PROFILE
Offensive efficiency
Season-to-date efficiency, production, and situational performance.
| STATISTIC | GB | NE |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / PLAYExpected points added per eligible offensive play | +0.005#17 / 32
|
+0.063#8 / 32
|
| SUCCESS RATEShare of succesful eligible plays | 40.4%#27 / 32
|
45.8%#11 / 32
|
| YARDS / PLAYAverage yards gained per eligible offensive play | 5.45#16 / 32
|
6.09#4 / 32
|
| EPA / DROPBACKEPA on QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles | +0.127#13 / 32
|
+0.210#6 / 32
|
| EPA / RUSHEPA on designed rushes; excludes QB scrambles | -0.244#32 / 32
|
-0.142#23 / 32
|
| YARDS / DROPBACKYards gained per QB dropback, including sacks and scrambles | 6.63#11 / 32
|
7.69#3 / 32
|
| EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE20+ yards on dropbacks or 10+ on designed rushes | 9.0%#11 / 32
|
9.1%#9 / 32
|
| 3RD DOWN CONVERSION %Conversions / attempts, from teamstats; includes official team conversions | 38.3%#20 / 32
|
40.0%#12 / 32
|
| RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS %nflverse success on plays snapped inside opponent’s 20 | 42.0%#19 / 32
|
43.8%#16 / 32
|
| TEAM POINTS / GAMETeam points per game, all scoring phases | 21.38#23 / 32
|
23.00#16 / 32
|
| GIVEAWAYS / GAMETotal giveaways per game; lower is better | 1.38#16 / 32
|
1.88#29 / 32
|
02 / TEAM PROFILE
Defensive efficiency
Opponent efficiency, scoring, and defensive impact statistics.
| STATISTIC | GB | NE |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / PLAY ALLOWEDOpponent EPA per eligible offensive play | -0.069#7 / 32
|
+0.009#16 / 32
|
| SUCCESS RATE ALLOWEDOpponent nflverse play success percentage | 43.6%#16 / 32
|
43.4%#15 / 32
|
| YARDS / PLAY ALLOWEDOpponent yards gained per eligible play | 4.77#3 / 32
|
5.28#12 / 32
|
| EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWEDOpponent EPA on QB dropbacks | -0.052#5 / 32
|
+0.069#19 / 32
|
| EPA / RUSH ALLOWEDOpponent EPA on designed rushes, excluding scrambles | -0.095#11 / 32
|
-0.089#14 / 32
|
| EXPLOSIVE RATE ALLOWED20+ yard opponent dropbacks or 10+ yard designed rushes | 5.8%#3 / 32
|
8.9%#16 / 32
|
| OPP 3RD DOWN CONV %Opponent conversions / attempts | 41.4%#21 / 32
|
38.5%#11 / 32
|
| RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS ALLOWEDOpponent nflverse play success inside the 20; not drive scoring rate | 50.0%#26 / 32
|
37.7%#9 / 32
|
| OPP POINTS / GAMEOpponent points per game, including all scoring phases | 20.50#10 / 32
|
20.25#9 / 32
|
| OPP COMPLETION %Opponent completions / pass attempts | 63.7%#16 / 32
|
66.1%#24 / 32
|
| SACKS / GAMESacks by defense per game | 2.75#7 / 32
|
2.75#7 / 32
|
| INTERCEPTIONS / GAMEInterceptions generated per game | 1.25#3 / 32
|
0.62#16 / 32
|
| TAKEAWAYS / GAMETotal takeaways per game | 1.88#2 / 32
|
1.00#21 / 32
|
| TACKLES FOR LOSS / GAMECredited tackles for loss, from nflverse team stats; may overlap sacks | 5.88#3 / 32
|
4.62#18 / 32
|
| FORCED FUMBLES / GAMECredited forced fumbles | 0.62#23 / 32
|
0.62#23 / 32
|
| PASSES DEFENDED / GAMECredited passes defended, from nflverse team stats; not necessarily identical to pass breakups | 5.50#7 / 32
|
3.88#22 / 32
|
| OPP FUMBLES RECOVERED / GAMERecoveries of opponent fumbles, from nflverse team stats; all phases | 0.62#12 / 32
|
0.38#24 / 32
|
| QB HITS / GAMECredited QB hits, may overlap sacks | 6.25#14 / 32
|
6.50#12 / 32
|
| STUFFED RUN RATEOpponent designed rushes gaining zero or fewer yards; excludes scrambles | 22.4%#5 / 32
|
16.7%#22 / 32
|
| HAVOC RATEEligible plays with sack, TFL, interception, forced fumble, or pass breakup; counted once | 17.5%#5 / 32
|
14.3%#18 / 32
|
| PASSING HAVOC RATEHavoc on opponent QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles | 20.6%#6 / 32
|
17.9%#19 / 32
|
| RUSHING HAVOC RATEHavoc on opponent designed rushing plays, excluding scrambles | 12.7%#6 / 32
|
8.3%#22 / 32
|
03 / HEAD-TO-HEAD
Where the matchups tilt
Each offense against the opposing defense.
Green Bay Packers offense vs. New England Patriots defense
GB passing EPA: +0.127 (#13). NE passing EPA allowed: +0.069 (#19).
New England Patriots offense vs. Green Bay Packers defense
NE rushing EPA: -0.142 (#23). GB rushing EPA allowed: -0.095 (#11).
04 / THE READOUT
Four numbers worth knowing
GB: #17 offense, #7 defense
Green Bay Packers averages +0.005 EPA/play on offense and allows -0.069 on defense.
NE run offense vs. GB run defense
New England Patriots has -0.142 rushing EPA/play (#23). Green Bay Packers allows -0.095 rushing EPA/play (#11).
GB pass offense vs. NE pass defense
Green Bay Packers generates +0.127 passing EPA/play (#13); New England Patriots allows +0.069 (#19).
Play-to-play consistency
GB success rate: 40.4% (#27) vs. NE: 45.8% (#11). On defense: GB 43.6% allowed (#16), NE 43.4% (#15).
05 / GO FOOTBALL ANALYTICS MODEL
Predicted final score
Historically trained NFL score projection, using only prior-game team form.
The model was trained on 2021–2024 regular-season games, evaluated on unseen 2025 games, then refitted through 2025. In the 2025 holdout (272 games), its average absolute score error was 7.53 points per team (simple baseline: 7.55). Winner accuracy: 60.2%. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees; injuries, lineup changes, and weather are not included. Data reflects all completed games available at generation time.