Jaguars vs. Ravens
A data-first view of offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and the statistical edges that shape this matchup. Figures combine nflverse play-by-play, credited team statistics, and season team totals.
01 / TEAM PROFILE
Offensive efficiency
Season-to-date efficiency, production, and situational performance.
| STATISTIC | JAX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / PLAYExpected points added per eligible offensive play | +0.161#3 / 32 |
+0.023#14 / 32 |
| SUCCESS RATEShare of succesful eligible plays | 47.5%#7 / 32 |
45.6%#12 / 32 |
| YARDS / PLAYAverage yards gained per eligible offensive play | 6.02#5 / 32 |
5.74#9 / 32 |
| EPA / DROPBACKEPA on QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles | +0.266#3 / 32 |
+0.095#14 / 32 |
| EPA / RUSHEPA on designed rushes; excludes QB scrambles | +0.038#3 / 32 |
-0.072#16 / 32 |
| YARDS / DROPBACKYards gained per QB dropback, including sacks and scrambles | 7.38#4 / 32 |
6.71#10 / 32 |
| EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE20+ yards on dropbacks or 10+ on designed rushes | 10.8%#4 / 32 |
9.1%#10 / 32 |
| 3RD DOWN CONVERSION %Conversions / attempts, from teamstats; includes official team conversions | 48.2%#3 / 32 |
39.2%#14 / 32 |
| RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS %nflverse success on plays snapped inside opponent's 20 | 50.0%#5 / 32 |
44.7%#12 / 32 |
| TEAM POINTS / GAMETeam points per game, all scoring phases | 28.00#5 / 32 |
22.38#19 / 32 |
| GIVEAWAYS / GAMETotal giveaways per game; lower is better | 0.71#4 / 32 |
1.00#10 / 32 |
02 / TEAM PROFILE
Defensive efficiency
Opponent efficiency, scoring, and defensive impact statistics.
| STATISTIC | JAX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / PLAY ALLOWEDOpponent EPA per eligible offensive play | -0.099#4 / 32 |
+0.013#18 / 32 |
| SUCCESS RATE ALLOWEDOpponent nflverse play success percentage | 42.2%#11 / 32 |
44.4%#21 / 32 |
| YARDS / PLAY ALLOWEDOpponent yards gained per eligible play | 5.64#23 / 32 |
5.34#14 / 32 |
| EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWEDOpponent EPA on QB dropbacks | -0.050#6 / 32 |
+0.057#17 / 32 |
| EPA / RUSH ALLOWEDOpponent EPA on designed rushes, excluding scrambles | -0.192#1 / 32 |
-0.055#23 / 32 |
| EXPLOSIVE RATE ALLOWED20+ yard opponent dropbacks or 10+ yard designed rushes | 7.8%#9 / 32 |
7.8%#10 / 32 |
| OPP 3RD DOWN CONV %Opponent conversions / attempts | 35.0%#9 / 32 |
39.6%#16 / 32 |
| RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS ALLOWEDOpponent nflverse play success inside the 20; not drive scoring rate | 30.6%#2 / 32 |
49.5%#25 / 32 |
| OPP POINTS / GAMEOpponent points per game, including all scoring phases | 15.86#2 / 32 |
25.38#22 / 32 |
| OPP COMPLETION %Opponent completions / pass attempts | 66.5%#28 / 32 |
65.5%#21 / 32 |
| SACKS / GAMESacks by defense per game | 2.00#22 / 32 |
2.12#21 / 32 |
| INTERCEPTIONS / GAMEInterceptions generated per game | 1.29#2 / 32 |
0.50#24 / 32 |
| TAKEAWAYS / GAMETotal takeaways per game | 1.71#3 / 32 |
1.00#21 / 32 |
| TACKLES FOR LOSS / GAMECredited tackles for loss, from nflverse team stats; may overlap sacks | 3.57#26 / 32 |
5.12#12 / 32 |
| FORCED FUMBLES / GAMECredited forced fumbles | 0.57#26 / 32 |
0.88#12 / 32 |
| PASSES DEFENDED / GAMECredited passes defended, from nflverse team stats; not necessarily identical to pass breakups | 4.57#15 / 32 |
3.50#28 / 32 |
| OPP FUMBLES RECOVERED / GAMERecoveries of opponent fumbles, from nflverse team stats; all phases | 0.43#21 / 32 |
0.50#18 / 32 |
| QB HITS / GAMECredited QB hits, may overlap sacks | 6.43#13 / 32 |
6.62#9 / 32 |
| STUFFED RUN RATEOpponent designed rushes gaining zero or fewer yards; excludes scrambles | 19.7%#10 / 32 |
20.5%#8 / 32 |
| HAVOC RATEEligible plays with sack, TFL, interception, forced fumble, or pass breakup; counted once | 15.3%#14 / 32 |
13.9%#22 / 32 |
| PASSING HAVOC RATEHavoc on opponent QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles | 18.5%#16 / 32 |
16.2%#28 / 32 |
| RUSHING HAVOC RATEHavoc on opponent designed rushing plays, excluding scrambles | 9.2%#17 / 32 |
10.3%#13 / 32 |
03 / HEAD-TO-HEAD
Where the matchups tilt
Each offense against the opposing defense.
Jacksonville Jaguars offense vs. Baltimore Ravens defense
JAX passing EPA: +0.262 (#3). BAL passing EPA allowed: +0.057 (#17).
Baltimore Ravens offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars defense
BAL rushing EPA: -0.072 (#16). JAX rushing EPA allowed: -0.192 (#1).
04 / THE READOUT
Four numbers worth knowing
JAX: #3 offense, #4 defense
Jacksonville Jaguars averages +0.161 EPA/play on offense and allows -0.099 on defense.
BAL run offense vs. JAX run defense
Baltimore Ravens has -0.072 rushing EPA/play (#16). Jacksonville Jaguars allows -0.192 rushing EPA/play (#1).
JAX pass offense vs. BAL pass defense
Jacksonville Jaguars generates +0.262 passing EPA/play (#3); Baltimore Ravens allows +0.057 (#17).
Play-to-play consistency
JAX success rate: 47.5% (#7) vs. BAL: 45.6% (#12). On defense: JAX 42.2% allowed (#11), BAL 44.4% (#21).
05 / GFA MODEL
Predicted final score
Historically trained NFL score projection, using only prior-game team form.
The model was trained on 2021–2024 regular-season games, evaluated on unseen 2025 games, then refitted through 2025. In the 2025 holdout (272 games), its average absolute score error was 7.53 points per team (simple baseline: 7.55). Winner accuracy: 60.2%. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees; injuries, lineup changes, and weather are not included. Data reflects all completed games available at generation time.