Steelers vs. Bengals
A data-first view of offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and the statistical edges that shape this matchup. Figures combine nflverse play-by-play, credited team statistics, and season team totals.
01 / TEAM PROFILE
Offensive efficiency
Season-to-date efficiency, production, and situational performance.
| STATISTIC | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / PLAYExpected points added per eligible offensive play | -0.027#19 / 32
|
+0.142#3 / 32
|
| SUCCESS RATEShare of succesful eligible plays | 42.1%#19 / 32
|
50.4%#2 / 32
|
| YARDS / PLAYAverage yards gained per eligible offensive play | 5.34#17 / 32
|
6.14#4 / 32
|
| EPA / DROPBACKEPA on QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles | -0.110#26 / 32
|
+0.261#3 / 32
|
| EPA / RUSHEPA on designed rushes; excludes QB scrambles | +0.119#1 / 32
|
-0.095#18 / 32
|
| YARDS / DROPBACKYards gained per QB dropback, including sacks and scrambles | 5.45#26 / 32
|
7.29#5 / 32
|
| EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE20+ yards on dropbacks or 10+ on designed rushes | 9.3%#11 / 32
|
9.1%#13 / 32
|
| 3RD DOWN CONVERSION %Conversions / attempts, from teamstats; includes official team conversions | 37.9%#16 / 32
|
53.6%#1 / 32
|
| RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS %nflverse success on plays snapped inside opponent’s 20 | 40.3%#24 / 32
|
56.8%#1 / 32
|
| TEAM POINTS / GAMETeam points per game, all scoring phases | 22.50#17 / 32
|
30.00#2 / 32
|
| GIVEAWAYS / GAMETotal giveaways per game; lower is better | 1.00#9 / 32
|
1.25#16 / 32
|
02 / TEAM PROFILE
Defensive efficiency
Opponent efficiency, scoring, and defensive impact statistics.
| STATISTIC | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| EPA / PLAY ALLOWEDOpponent EPA per eligible offensive play | -0.074#7 / 32
|
+0.005#18 / 32
|
| SUCCESS RATE ALLOWEDOpponent nflverse play success percentage | 41.8%#11 / 32
|
44.3%#22 / 32
|
| YARDS / PLAY ALLOWEDOpponent yards gained per eligible play | 5.04#7 / 32
|
5.79#24 / 32
|
| EPA / DROPBACK ALLOWEDOpponent EPA on QB dropbacks | -0.028#8 / 32
|
+0.029#14 / 32
|
| EPA / RUSH ALLOWEDOpponent EPA on designed rushes, excluding scrambles | -0.161#4 / 32
|
-0.038#24 / 32
|
| EXPLOSIVE RATE ALLOWED20+ yard opponent dropbacks or 10+ yard designed rushes | 8.4%#14 / 32
|
9.6%#22 / 32
|
| OPP 3RD DOWN CONV %Opponent conversions / attempts | 34.3%#7 / 32
|
47.5%#30 / 32
|
| RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS ALLOWEDOpponent nflverse play success inside the 20; not drive scoring rate | 30.8%#3 / 32
|
36.4%#6 / 32
|
| OPP POINTS / GAMEOpponent points per game, including all scoring phases | 18.00#4 / 32
|
21.88#14 / 32
|
| OPP COMPLETION %Opponent completions / pass attempts | 65.4%#21 / 32
|
63.7%#14 / 32
|
| SACKS / GAMESacks by defense per game | 3.25#4 / 32
|
2.88#9 / 32
|
| INTERCEPTIONS / GAMEInterceptions generated per game | 0.88#8 / 32
|
0.62#19 / 32
|
| TAKEAWAYS / GAMETotal takeaways per game | 1.62#4 / 32
|
1.50#7 / 32
|
| TACKLES FOR LOSS / GAMECredited tackles for loss, from nflverse team stats; may overlap sacks | 6.25#2 / 32
|
4.88#16 / 32
|
| FORCED FUMBLES / GAMECredited forced fumbles | 1.25#5 / 32
|
1.38#2 / 32
|
| PASSES DEFENDED / GAMECredited passes defended, from nflverse team stats; not necessarily identical to pass breakups | 6.38#1 / 32
|
4.50#14 / 32
|
| OPP FUMBLES RECOVERED / GAMERecoveries of opponent fumbles, from nflverse team stats; all phases | 0.75#5 / 32
|
0.88#2 / 32
|
| QB HITS / GAMECredited QB hits, may overlap sacks | 6.62#7 / 32
|
5.75#17 / 32
|
| STUFFED RUN RATEOpponent designed rushes gaining zero or fewer yards; excludes scrambles | 23.8%#1 / 32
|
23.3%#2 / 32
|
| HAVOC RATEEligible plays with sack, TFL, interception, forced fumble, or pass breakup; counted once | 21.8%#1 / 32
|
16.1%#12 / 32
|
| PASSING HAVOC RATEHavoc on opponent QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles | 25.5%#1 / 32
|
19.6%#13 / 32
|
| RUSHING HAVOC RATEHavoc on opponent designed rushing plays, excluding scrambles | 14.9%#1 / 32
|
9.7%#17 / 32
|
03 / HEAD-TO-HEAD
Where the matchups tilt
Each offense against the opposing defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers offense vs. Cincinnati Bengals defense
PIT passing EPA: -0.110 (#26). CIN passing EPA allowed: +0.029 (#15).
Cincinnati Bengals offense vs. Pittsburgh Steelers defense
CIN rushing EPA: -0.095 (#18). PIT rushing EPA allowed: -0.161 (#4).
04 / THE READOUT
Four numbers worth knowing
PIT: #19 offense, #7 defense
Pittsburgh Steelers averages -0.027 EPA/play on offense and allows -0.074 on defense.
CIN run offense vs. PIT run defense
Cincinnati Bengals has -0.095 rushing EPA/play (#18). Pittsburgh Steelers allows -0.161 rushing EPA/play (#4).
PIT pass offense vs. CIN pass defense
Pittsburgh Steelers generates -0.110 passing EPA/play (#26); Cincinnati Bengals allows +0.029 (#15).
Play-to-play consistency
PIT success rate: 42.1% (#19) vs. CIN: 50.4% (#2). On defense: PIT 41.8% allowed (#11), CIN 44.3% (#22).
05 / GO FOOTBALL ANALYTICS MODEL
Predicted final score
Historically trained NFL score projection, using only prior-game team form.
The model was trained on 2021–2024 regular-season games, evaluated on unseen 2025 games, then refitted through 2025. In the 2025 holdout (272 games), its average absolute score error was 7.53 points per team (simple baseline: 7.55). Winner accuracy: 60.2%. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees; injuries, lineup changes, and weather are not included. Data reflects all completed games available at generation time.