As Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season approaches, the early betting lines are taking shape — and once again, the board is heavy with favorites. Oddsmakers have installed home teams as favorites in 8 of 15 games, suggesting confidence in home-field advantage as the playoff race intensifies.
The week opens Thursday night in Foxborough, where the red-hot New England Patriots (-12.5) host the struggling New York Jets, the largest spread of the week. Other notable lines include the Ravens (-8.5) over the Browns, the Packers (-7.5) over the Giants, and the Texans (-6.5) over the Titans.
The card closes on Monday Night Football, with the Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) favored on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders, a matchup between two teams searching for rhythm in the back half of the season.
Biggest Week 11 Point Spreads
- New York Jets at New England Patriots — Patriots -12.5
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns — Ravens -8.5
- Green Bay Packers at New York Giants — Packers -7.5
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans — Texans -6.5
In total, favorites covered 52.7% of games through Week 10, with home teams going 51.8% ATS, showing only a modest edge for those laying points.
Against the Spread (ATS) Leaders
A handful of consistent performers continue to reward bettors. The Rams and Seahawks remain at the top of the league with a 7–2 ATS record each, while the Patriots (7–3), Lions (6–3), and Eagles (6–3) round out the top five.
Mid-tier teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, and Buccaneers (all 5–4 ATS) have hovered near even, while Green Bay (3–6), Buffalo (3–6), and Cleveland (3–6) have struggled to meet market expectations.
At the bottom, Tennessee (2–6–1) continues to be one of the league’s most costly teams at the window.
Betting and Scoring Trends
Through 149 games, the league’s betting splits have been relatively balanced:
Favorites: 52.7% cover rate
Underdogs: 46.6% cover rate
Overs: 53.7%
Unders: 46.3%
Scoring has ticked upward in recent weeks, with totals going over in five of the last six weeks, signaling a midseason offensive surge. Notably, Week 8 saw a season-high 84.6% of favorites covering the spread, followed by a sharp correction in Week 9 when underdogs bounced back.
Spotlight Games and Market Movement
- Patriots (-12.5) vs. Jets: New England has covered seven of its last ten, while the Jets have quietly gone 5–4 ATS despite a 2–7 record.
- Eagles (-2.5) vs. Lions: A primetime battle of NFC heavyweights on Sunday night — both clubs are 6–3 ATS and among the most consistent teams for bettors.
- Broncos (-3.5) vs. Chiefs: Denver (8–2 SU) is unbeaten at home, but Kansas City has been strong historically as a short favorite.
- Seahawks at Rams (-3.5): Both teams enter 7–2 ATS, making this one of the most evenly handicapped matchups of the week.
Best Bets and Value Angles
1. Patriots -12.5 vs. Jets
New England is 4–0 ATS at home and has won six straight overall. Their defense ranks top three in both yards and points allowed — a tough combination for an inconsistent Jets offense.
2. Ravens -8.5 at Browns
Baltimore has gone 5–4 ATS, but this matchup heavily favors their defense. Cleveland ranks near the bottom in scoring and has covered only three spreads all year.
3. Lions +2.5 at Eagles (SNF)
Detroit’s physicality and balance make them a live underdog in primetime. They’ve covered six of nine games, and Philadelphia has been shaky against top-tier opponents.
Upset Watch: Chargers (+2.5) at Jaguars — Los Angeles has been unpredictable but dangerous on the road, while Jacksonville has struggled to cover as a home favorite.
Favorites continue to have the upper hand, but Week 11’s lines feature several inflated numbers that could invite sharp action on live underdogs. With seven games carrying spreads of six points or more, the week sets up for at least one or two surprises — as bettors have learned all season, the NFL rarely stays predictable for long.
Here are the latest point spread odds for week 11:
| 11/13 8:15 | New York Jets (2-7) at New England Patriots (8-2) | NE -12.5 |
| 11/16 9:30 | Washington Commanders (3-7) at Miami Dolphins (3-7) | MIA -2.5 |
| 11/16 1:00 | Carolina Panthers (5-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6) | ATL -3.5 |
| 11/16 1:00 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Buffalo Bills (6-3) | BUF -5.5 |
| 11/16 1:00 | Houston Texans (4-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-8) | HOU -6.5 |
| 11/16 1:00 | Chicago Bears (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5) | MIN -3.5 |
| 11/16 1:00 | Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) at New York Giants (2-8) | GB -7.5 |
| 11/16 1:00 | Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) | PIT -5.5 |
| 11/16 1:00 | Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) | LAC -2.5 |
| 11/16 4:05 | Seattle Seahawks (7-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-2) | LAR -3.5 |
| 11/16 4:05 | San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-6) | SF -2.5 |
| 11/16 4:25 | Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (2-7) | BAL -8.5 |
| 11/16 4:25 | Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Denver Broncos (8-2) | KC -3.5 |
| 11/16 8:20 | Detroit Lions (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) | PHI -2.5 |
| 11/17 8:15 | Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) | DAL -3.5 |