The NFL rolls into Week 10 with several heavy favorites and a few sneaky underdog opportunities across the slate. Early lines have been posted, and the trend is clear — the house expects the contenders to handle business.
The action kicks off Thursday night as the Denver Broncos (-9.5) host the struggling Las Vegas Raiders on Prime Video. That’s just one of several big numbers this week: the Bills (-9.5) are heavy road favorites at Miami, the Lions (-8.5) are laying more than a touchdown in Washington, and the Colts (-6.5) open the Sunday slate against Atlanta in London.
In total, home teams are favored in nine of the 14 matchups, a strong tilt toward home-field advantage after several weeks of road upsets. Teams like Denver, Buffalo, Detroit, and Indianapolis enter Week 10 both as favorites and popular parlay anchors.
ATS Snapshot: Who’s Covering and Who’s Collapsing
The Los Angeles Rams (6–2) and Seattle Seahawks (6–2) remain the NFL’s best bets against the spread, with Carolina (6–3), Indianapolis (6–3), and New England (6–3) close behind. On the opposite end, New Orleans (2–7) and Tennessee (2–6–1) continue to burn bettors week after week, while Buffalo and Green Bay are both disappointing ATS plays at 3–5 despite strong straight-up records.
Home bettors have been rewarded most by the Colts and Chiefs, who are each 4–1 ATS at home, while Detroit, Cleveland, and the Rams have all covered 75% of their home contests. Meanwhile, Buffalo (1–4 ATS) and New Orleans (1–4 ATS) have struggled to meet lofty expectations in front of their fans.
League Trends to Know
Through 135 games this season:
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Favorites are covering 53.7% of the time
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Underdogs sit at 45.5%
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Overs are hitting in 54.1% of games
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Home teams have gone 53.9% ATS, showing a mild but steady edge
Scoring has ticked upward in recent weeks, with several high-powered offenses finding rhythm — something to keep in mind as totals rise.
Spotlight Matchups
The Patriots at Buccaneers showdown is drawing plenty of early betting interest, with Tampa Bay (-2.5) slightly favored at home in a matchup of 6-win teams. Sunday night features a tight line between the Steelers and Chargers, while Monday Night Football brings a potential NFC playoff preview as the Packers (-2.5) host the Eagles at Lambeau Field.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s 8.5-point line in Washington is worth watching — the Lions are 5–3 ATS overall and 3–1 ATS on the road, while the Commanders have quietly gone 3–1 ATS at home. Something has to give.
Best Bets & Upset Watch
Best Bets
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Seattle Seahawks (-6.5 vs. Arizona) — The Seahawks are 6–2 ATS overall and 2–2 at home, while the Cardinals are just 1–3 ATS on the road. Seattle’s defense has tightened recently, and they’ve covered in six of their last eight against Arizona.
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Indianapolis Colts (-6.5 vs. Atlanta) — Indy is one of the league’s best home teams ATS (4–1) and faces a Falcons squad that’s just 3–5 ATS overall and struggling offensively on the road.
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Carolina Panthers (-5.5 vs. New Orleans) — Carolina has quietly been one of the most reliable ATS plays this season (6–3 overall, 3–1 at home). The Saints, meanwhile, are an ugly 2–7 ATS and 1–4 at home/road splits alike.
Upset Watch
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Patriots (+2.5 at Buccaneers) — New England is 6–3 ATS and playing with momentum. Tampa Bay’s been solid, but the Pats’ defense could make this one a grinder.
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Vikings (+4.5 vs. Ravens) — Minnesota is 4–4 ATS and has been a reliable home underdog under pressure. Baltimore is unpredictable away from M&T Bank Stadium.
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Packers (+2.5 vs. Eagles) — Green Bay has quietly gone 2–2 ATS at Lambeau, and Philadelphia’s 5–3 ATS record could take a hit against a rested home team under the lights.
Here are the latest point spread odds for week 10:
| 11/6 8:15 | Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2) | DEN -9.5 |
| 11/9 9:30 | Atlanta Falcons (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (7-2) | IND -6.5 |
| 11/9 1:00 | New York Giants (2-7) at Chicago Bears (5-3) | CHI -4.5 |
| 11/9 1:00 | Buffalo Bills (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-7) | BUF -9.5 |
| 11/9 1:00 | Baltimore Ravens (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (4-4) | BAL -4.5 |
| 11/9 1:00 | Cleveland Browns (2-6) at New York Jets (1-7) | CLE -2.5 |
| 11/9 1:00 | New England Patriots (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) | TB -2.5 |
| 11/9 1:00 | New Orleans Saints (1-8) at Carolina Panthers (5-4) | CAR -5.5 |
| 11/9 1:00 | Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) at Houston Texans (3-5) | HOU -1.5 |
| 11/9 4:05 | Arizona Cardinals (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2) | SEA -6.5 |
| 11/9 4:25 | Los Angeles Rams (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3) | LAR -4.5 |
| 11/9 4:25 | Detroit Lions (5-3) at Washington Commanders (3-6) | DET -8.5 |
| 11/9 8:20 | Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) | LAC -2.5 |
| 11/10 8:15 | Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) | GB -2.5 |