We are just days away from Super Bowl 58! The final match-up pits the 11-6 Kansas City Chiefs taking on the 12-5 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, February 11. Game time is slated for 6:30PM ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The game is a rematch of Super Bowl 53 won by the Chiefs that year 31-20. That was Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’s first Super Bowl title. Now he’ll go for No. 3 while 49er star Brock Purdy will seek his first in his first appearance.
Their latest regular season clash ended with the Chiefs besting the 49ers 44-23 last year on Sunday, October 23. In this series of late, the Chiefs hold the lead 6-4 over their last 10 regular season collisions.
Overall, the 49ers will bid for a sixth Super Bowl win while the Chiefs eye a fourth. However, the Chiefs will try to go back-to-back and this marks their fourth appearance in this game in the last five years. A win Sunday, they will be a true dynasty.
The 49ers missed in Super Bowl 54 and also Super Bowl 47 losing to the Baltimore Ravens. Their last title came in 1995 when Steve Young led San Fran to a romp over the San Diego Chargers.
Mahomes will start in his fourth Super Bowl, quite remarkable for someone who’s just 28. A third ring, though, doesn’t even get him to half of Tom Brady’s seven!
This year, Mahomes has taken more of a backseat with the Chiefs defense playing so well. Overall, in Super Bowls his numbers haven’t been great, but a 2-1 mark is one many will take, including Purdy.
The 24-year-old Purdy has been a sensation since bursting into the league 14 months ago. The last pick in the 2022 draft, Purdy was among the favorites to win MVP this year — all but shedding the dreaded “game manager” tag.
Purdy showed more than his arm by using his legs in a comeback win over the Lions two Sundays ago. Purdy will likely need more of his legs in Las Vegas against the Steve Spagnolo-led Chiefs defense which shutdown the explosive Baltimore Ravens.
Purdy figures to have a tougher time of it while Mahomes, who will likely see a lot of zone, might feast on Sunday.
Outside of the QBs, look for Christian McCaffrey to have an impact for the 49ers and of course Taylor Swift’s beau Travis Kelce to do his thing. Both are strong on special teams and if Deebo Samuel is healthy, the edge in wideouts should go to San Fran.
That said, the game could really come down to defense. San Fran’s has been a shell of itself of late while the Chiefs seem to be peaking at the perfect time.
Still, oddsmakers give the slight nod to the 49ers. Why? During the regular season San Francisco was clearly better than the Chiefs who struggled. But in the playoffs, the 49ers survived tough wins over the Packers and Lions while the Chiefs went on the road to beat the Bill and the Ravens.
Game Details
• Matchup: San Francisco 49ers (SF) vs Kansas City Chiefs (KC)
• Date: February 11, 2024
• Time: 6:30PM ET
• Stadium: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• TV: CBS
• Allegiant Stadium Kick-Off Weather Forecast: Sunny, high 54F
TEAM STATS COMPARISON (REGULAR SEASON)
| 2023 | LAST 10 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | SF | KC | SF | ||
| Record | 11-6 | 12-5 | 5-5 | 7-3 | |
| Home Record | 5-4 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 | |
| Away Record | 6-2 | 7-2 | 3-2 | 5-0 | |
| Points Scored/Game | 21.8 | 28.9 | 19.3 | 29.0 | |
| Points Allowed/Game | 17.3 | 17.5 | 18.9 | 18.9 | |
| Point Differential | +77 | +193 | +4 | +101 | |
| Yards/Game | 351.3 | 398.4 | 319.5 | 422.0 | |
| Yards Allowed/Game | 289.8 | 303.9 | 286.4 | 304.7 | |
| Passing Yards/Game | 223.7 | 223.7 | 200.2 | 247.6 | |
| Passing Yards Allowed/Game | 148.2 | 182.2 | 142.6 | 179.0 | |
| Rushing Yards/Game | 84.2 | 124.6 | 85.7 | 128.8 | |
| Rushing Yards Allowed/Game | 99.3 | 80.8 | 105.6 | 92.4 | |
| First Downs/Game | 17.7 | 19.4 | 16.6 | 20.1 | |
| First Downs Allowed/Game | 15.2 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 17.0 | |
| 3rd Down Conv % | 41.6 | 45.4 | 37.6 | 46.2 | |
| Opp 3rd Down Conv % | 36.1 | 38.9 | 36.0 | 39.3 | |
| Turnover Margin | -11 | +10 | -11 | +4 | |
| Total Games | 17 | 17 | 10 | 10 | |
Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Leaders
| PASSING | C-A | YDS | TD | INT | SK | |
| Patrick Mahomes | 471-700 | 4,902 | 31 | 14 | 29 |
| RUSHING | ATT | YDS | TD | LNG |
| Isiah Pacheco | 268 | 1,189 | 10 | 48 |
| RECEIVING | REC | YDS | TD | LNG |
| Travis Kelce | 116 | 1,246 | 8 | 53 |
San Francisco 49ers 2023 Leaders
| PASSING | C-A | YDS | TD | INT | SK | |
| Brock Purdy | 351-514 | 4,799 | 33 | 12 | 31 |
| RUSHING | ATT | YDS | TD | LNG |
| Christian McCaffrey | 309 | 1,647 | 18 | 72 |
| RECEIVING | REC | YDS | TD | LNG |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 81 | 1,442 | 8 | 76 |
Last 10 Meetings
| DATE | TIME | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 23-Oct-22 | 4:25PM | Kansas City Chiefs d. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS | 44-23 |
| Sun 23-Sep-18 | 1:00PM | KANSAS CITY CHIEFS d. San Francisco 49ers | 38-27 |
| Sun 05-Oct-14 | 4:25PM | SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS d. Kansas City Chiefs | 22-17 |
| Sun 26-Sep-10 | 1:04PM | KANSAS CITY CHIEFS d. San Francisco 49ers | 31-10 |
| Sun 01-Oct-06 | 1:00PM | KANSAS CITY CHIEFS d. San Francisco 49ers | 41-0 |
| Sun 10-Nov-02 | 4:15PM | SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS d. Kansas City Chiefs | 17-13 |
| Sun 12-Nov-00 | 4:00PM | SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS d. Kansas City Chiefs | 21-7 |
| Sun 30-Nov-97 | 1:00PM | KANSAS CITY CHIEFS d. San Francisco 49ers | 44-9 |
| Sun 11-Sep-94 | 1:00PM | KANSAS CITY CHIEFS d. San Francisco 49ers | 24-17 |
| Sat 14-Dec-91 | 4:00PM | SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS d. Kansas City Chiefs | 28-14 |
Head-to-Head Stats (last 10)
| KC | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 Record | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Home Record | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Away Record | 1-4 | 0-5 |
QB Career Comparison
| CMP-ATT | PCT | YDs | TDs | INTs | SKs | PS REC (GMs) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 2386-3590 | 66.5% | 28,425 | 219 | 63 | 148 | 14-3 (17) |
| Brock Purdy | 422-614 | 68.7% | 5,654 | 44 | 15 | 39 | 4-1 (5) |
Starting QB Win-Loss Trends
• Patrick Mahomes W-L last 20 games as a starter: 14-6
• Patrick Mahomes last 20 games vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2-0
• Brock Purdy W-L last 20 games as a starter: 16-4
• Brock Purdy last 20 games vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 0-0
Player Trends
• Patrick Mahomes has 8 straight games with at least one passing TD
• Patrick Mahomes has 6 straight games with 200+ passing yards & at least one passing TD
• Patrick Mahomes has 5 straight games with a turnover
Betting Odds
• Favorite: San Francisco 49ers
• Spread: 1.5
• Over/Under: 47.5
Betting Trends
| Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 ATS | 5-0-0 | 1-4-0 |
| Last 10 ATS | 7-3-0 | 4-6-0 |
| Last 10 ATS at Home | 3-7-0 | |
| Last 10 ATS on Road | 7-3-0 | |
| Last 10 Over-Under | 4-6-0 | 5-5-0 |
Chiefs vs. 49ers Game Prediction
• Oddsmakers: San Francisco by 1.5
• GFA Model: San Francisco 49ers d. Kansas City Chiefs 23-22