{"id":6314,"date":"2026-11-08T16:46:49","date_gmt":"2026-11-08T21:46:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gofootballanalytics.com\/statsblog\/?p=6314"},"modified":"2026-11-08T16:46:49","modified_gmt":"2026-11-08T21:46:49","slug":"green-bay-packers-vs-new-england-patriots-preview-2026-week-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gofootballanalytics.com\/statsblog\/green-bay-packers-vs-new-england-patriots-preview-2026-week-9\/","title":{"rendered":"Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots Preview | 2026 Week 9"},"content":{"rendered":"
\r\n
\"Green<\/section>\r\n
\r\n

Packers vs.<\/em> Patriots<\/h1>\r\n

A data-first view of offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and the statistical edges that shape this matchup. Figures combine nflverse play-by-play, credited team statistics, and season team totals.<\/p>\r\n<\/section>\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
Green Bay Packers<\/small>GB<\/strong>Green Bay Packers<\/div>\r\n\"Green<\/div>\r\n
VS<\/div>\r\n
\r\n
New England Patriots<\/small>NE<\/strong>New England Patriots<\/div>\r\n\"New<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n
\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

01 \/ TEAM PROFILE<\/p>\r\n

Offensive efficiency<\/h2>\r\n

Season-to-date efficiency, production, and situational performance.<\/p>\r\n<\/div>\r\nNFL RANKS \u00b7 MIXED DIRECTIONS<\/span><\/div>\r\n

\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
STATISTIC<\/th>\r\nGB<\/th>\r\nNE<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
EPA \/ PLAY<\/span>Expected points added per eligible offensive play<\/span><\/td>\r\n+0.005<\/span>#17 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
+0.063<\/span>#8 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
SUCCESS RATE<\/span>Share of succesful eligible plays<\/span><\/td>\r\n40.4%<\/span>#27 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
45.8%<\/span>#11 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
YARDS \/ PLAY<\/span>Average yards gained per eligible offensive play<\/span><\/td>\r\n5.45<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
6.09<\/span>#4 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
EPA \/ DROPBACK<\/span>EPA on QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n+0.127<\/span>#13 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
+0.210<\/span>#6 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
EPA \/ RUSH<\/span>EPA on designed rushes; excludes QB scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n-0.244<\/span>#32 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
-0.142<\/span>#23 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
YARDS \/ DROPBACK<\/span>Yards gained per QB dropback, including sacks and scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n6.63<\/span>#11 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
7.69<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE<\/span>20+ yards on dropbacks or 10+ on designed rushes<\/span><\/td>\r\n9.0%<\/span>#11 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
9.1%<\/span>#9 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
3RD DOWN CONVERSION %<\/span>Conversions \/ attempts, from teamstats; includes official team conversions<\/span><\/td>\r\n38.3%<\/span>#20 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
40.0%<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS %<\/span>nflverse success on plays snapped inside opponent’s 20<\/span><\/td>\r\n42.0%<\/span>#19 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
43.8%<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
TEAM POINTS \/ GAME<\/span>Team points per game, all scoring phases<\/span><\/td>\r\n21.38<\/span>#23 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
23.00<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
GIVEAWAYS \/ GAME<\/span>Total giveaways per game; lower is better<\/span><\/td>\r\n1.38<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
1.88<\/span>#29 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
Bars indicate league rank (longer is better), not the numerical value of the statistic. Rankings use full-precision database values.<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n
\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

02 \/ TEAM PROFILE<\/p>\r\n

Defensive efficiency<\/h2>\r\n

Opponent efficiency, scoring, and defensive impact statistics.<\/p>\r\n<\/div>\r\nNFL RANKS \u00b7 MIXED DIRECTIONS<\/span><\/div>\r\n

\r\n
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
STATISTIC<\/th>\r\nGB<\/th>\r\nNE<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n
EPA \/ PLAY ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent EPA per eligible offensive play<\/span><\/td>\r\n-0.069<\/span>#7 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
+0.009<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
SUCCESS RATE ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent nflverse play success percentage<\/span><\/td>\r\n43.6%<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
43.4%<\/span>#15 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
YARDS \/ PLAY ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent yards gained per eligible play<\/span><\/td>\r\n4.77<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
5.28<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
EPA \/ DROPBACK ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent EPA on QB dropbacks<\/span><\/td>\r\n-0.052<\/span>#5 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
+0.069<\/span>#19 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
EPA \/ RUSH ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent EPA on designed rushes, excluding scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n-0.095<\/span>#11 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
-0.089<\/span>#14 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
EXPLOSIVE RATE ALLOWED<\/span>20+ yard opponent dropbacks or 10+ yard designed rushes<\/span><\/td>\r\n5.8%<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
8.9%<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
OPP 3RD DOWN CONV %<\/span>Opponent conversions \/ attempts<\/span><\/td>\r\n41.4%<\/span>#21 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
38.5%<\/span>#11 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent nflverse play success inside the 20; not drive scoring rate<\/span><\/td>\r\n50.0%<\/span>#26 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
37.7%<\/span>#9 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
OPP POINTS \/ GAME<\/span>Opponent points per game, including all scoring phases<\/span><\/td>\r\n20.50<\/span>#10 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
20.25<\/span>#9 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
OPP COMPLETION %<\/span>Opponent completions \/ pass attempts<\/span><\/td>\r\n63.7%<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
66.1%<\/span>#24 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
SACKS \/ GAME<\/span>Sacks by defense per game<\/span><\/td>\r\n2.75<\/span>#7 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
2.75<\/span>#7 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
INTERCEPTIONS \/ GAME<\/span>Interceptions generated per game<\/span><\/td>\r\n1.25<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
0.62<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
TAKEAWAYS \/ GAME<\/span>Total takeaways per game<\/span><\/td>\r\n1.88<\/span>#2 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
1.00<\/span>#21 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
TACKLES FOR LOSS \/ GAME<\/span>Credited tackles for loss, from nflverse team stats; may overlap sacks<\/span><\/td>\r\n5.88<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
4.62<\/span>#18 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
FORCED FUMBLES \/ GAME<\/span>Credited forced fumbles<\/span><\/td>\r\n0.62<\/span>#23 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
0.62<\/span>#23 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
PASSES DEFENDED \/ GAME<\/span>Credited passes defended, from nflverse team stats; not necessarily identical to pass breakups<\/span><\/td>\r\n5.50<\/span>#7 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
3.88<\/span>#22 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
OPP FUMBLES RECOVERED \/ GAME<\/span>Recoveries of opponent fumbles, from nflverse team stats; all phases<\/span><\/td>\r\n0.62<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
0.38<\/span>#24 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
QB HITS \/ GAME<\/span>Credited QB hits, may overlap sacks<\/span><\/td>\r\n6.25<\/span>#14 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
6.50<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
STUFFED RUN RATE<\/span>Opponent designed rushes gaining zero or fewer yards; excludes scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n22.4%<\/span>#5 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
16.7%<\/span>#22 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
HAVOC RATE<\/span>Eligible plays with sack, TFL, interception, forced fumble, or pass breakup; counted once<\/span><\/td>\r\n17.5%<\/span>#5 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
14.3%<\/span>#18 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
PASSING HAVOC RATE<\/span>Havoc on opponent QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n20.6%<\/span>#6 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
17.9%<\/span>#19 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
RUSHING HAVOC RATE<\/span>Havoc on opponent designed rushing plays, excluding scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n12.7%<\/span>#6 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n
8.3%<\/span>#22 \/ 32<\/span>\r\n
\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
Bars indicate league rank (longer is better), not the numerical value of the statistic. Rankings use full-precision database values.<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n
\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

03 \/ HEAD-TO-HEAD<\/p>\r\n

Where the matchups tilt<\/h2>\r\n

Each offense against the opposing defense.<\/p>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

\r\n
MATCHUP A \/ GB BALL<\/span>\r\n

Green Bay Packers offense vs. New England Patriots defense<\/h3>\r\n
\r\n
GB offensive EPA<\/small>+0.005<\/b>#17 NFL<\/small><\/article>\r\n
NE EPA allowed<\/small>+0.009<\/b>#16 NFL<\/small><\/article>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

GB passing EPA: +0.127 (#13). NE passing EPA allowed: +0.069 (#19).<\/p>\r\n<\/article>\r\n

MATCHUP B \/ NE BALL<\/span>\r\n

New England Patriots offense vs. Green Bay Packers defense<\/h3>\r\n
\r\n
NE offensive EPA<\/small>+0.063<\/b>#8 NFL<\/small><\/article>\r\n
GB EPA allowed<\/small>-0.069<\/b>#7 NFL<\/small><\/article>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

NE rushing EPA: -0.142 (#23). GB rushing EPA allowed: -0.095 (#11).<\/p>\r\n<\/article>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

04 \/ THE READOUT<\/p>\r\n

Four numbers worth knowing<\/h2>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
\r\n
01 \/ TWO-WAY PROFILE<\/span>\r\n

GB: #17 offense, #7 defense<\/h3>\r\n

Green Bay Packers averages +0.005 EPA\/play on offense and allows -0.069 on defense.<\/p>\r\n<\/article>\r\n

02 \/ GROUND GAME<\/span>\r\n

NE run offense vs. GB run defense<\/h3>\r\n

New England Patriots has -0.142 rushing EPA\/play (#23). Green Bay Packers allows -0.095 rushing EPA\/play (#11).<\/p>\r\n<\/article>\r\n

03 \/ AIR ATTACK<\/span>\r\n

GB pass offense vs. NE pass defense<\/h3>\r\n

Green Bay Packers generates +0.127 passing EPA\/play (#13); New England Patriots allows +0.069 (#19).<\/p>\r\n<\/article>\r\n

04 \/ SUCCESS RATE<\/span>\r\n

Play-to-play consistency<\/h3>\r\n

GB success rate: 40.4% (#27) vs. NE: 45.8% (#11). On defense: GB 43.6% allowed (#16), NE 43.4% (#15).<\/p>\r\n<\/article>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
\r\n

05 \/ GO FOOTBALL ANALYTICS MODEL<\/p>\r\n

Predicted final score<\/h2>\r\n

Historically trained NFL score projection, using only prior-game team form.<\/p>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
\"Green\r\n
PACKERS<\/div>\r\n
21<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
VS<\/div>\r\n
\"New\r\n
PATRIOTS<\/div>\r\n
26<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
Projected spread:<\/strong> NE -4.5 Projected total:<\/strong> 46.7 Venue:<\/strong> NE home<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n

The model was trained on 2021\u20132024 regular-season games, evaluated on unseen 2025 games, then refitted through 2025. In the 2025 holdout (272 games), its average absolute score error was 7.53 points per team<\/strong> (simple baseline: 7.55). Winner accuracy: 60.2%. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees; injuries, lineup changes, and weather are not included. Data reflects all completed games available at generation time.<\/p>\r\n<\/section>\r\n<\/main>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Packers vs. Patriots A data-first view of offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and the statistical edges that shape this matchup. Figures combine nflverse play-by-play, credited team statistics, and season team totals. Green Bay PackersGBGreen Bay Packers VS New England PatriotsNENew England Patriots 01 \/ TEAM PROFILE Offensive efficiency Season-to-date efficiency, production, and situational performance. NFL RANKS… Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots Preview | 2026 Week 9<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"off","neve_meta_content_width":70,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[145,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analytics","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nGreen Bay Packers vs New England Patriots Preview | 2026 Week 9<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots Preview | 2026 Week 9\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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