{"id":6304,"date":"2026-11-05T16:13:23","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T21:13:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gofootballanalytics.com\/statsblog\/?p=6304"},"modified":"2026-11-05T16:13:23","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T21:13:23","slug":"jacksonville-jaguars-vs-baltimore-ravens-preview-2026-week-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gofootballanalytics.com\/statsblog\/jacksonville-jaguars-vs-baltimore-ravens-preview-2026-week-9\/","title":{"rendered":"Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Preview | 2026 Week 9"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n
\r\n\r\n
\r\n\"Jacksonville\r\n<\/section>\r\n
\r\n

Jaguars vs.<\/em> Ravens<\/h1>\r\n

A data-first view of offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and the statistical edges that shape this matchup. Figures combine nflverse play-by-play, credited team statistics, and season team totals.<\/p>\r\n<\/section>\r\n

\r\n
Jacksonville Jaguars<\/small>JAX<\/strong>Jacksonville Jaguars<\/span><\/div>\"Jacksonville<\/div>\r\n
VS<\/div>\r\n
Baltimore Ravens<\/small>BAL<\/strong>Baltimore Ravens<\/span><\/div>\"Baltimore<\/div>\r\n<\/section>\r\n\r\n

01 \/ TEAM PROFILE<\/p>

Offensive efficiency<\/h2>

Season-to-date efficiency, production, and situational performance.<\/p><\/div>NFL RANKS \u00b7 MIXED DIRECTIONS<\/span><\/div>\r\n

\r\n\r\n
STATISTIC<\/th>JAX<\/th>BAL<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
EPA \/ PLAY<\/span>Expected points added per eligible offensive play<\/span><\/td>\r\n+0.161<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
+0.023<\/span>#14 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
SUCCESS RATE<\/span>Share of succesful eligible plays<\/span><\/td>\r\n47.5%<\/span>#7 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
45.6%<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
YARDS \/ PLAY<\/span>Average yards gained per eligible offensive play<\/span><\/td>\r\n6.02<\/span>#5 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
5.74<\/span>#9 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
EPA \/ DROPBACK<\/span>EPA on QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n+0.266<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
+0.095<\/span>#14 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
EPA \/ RUSH<\/span>EPA on designed rushes; excludes QB scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n+0.038<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
-0.072<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
YARDS \/ DROPBACK<\/span>Yards gained per QB dropback, including sacks and scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n7.38<\/span>#4 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
6.71<\/span>#10 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE<\/span>20+ yards on dropbacks or 10+ on designed rushes<\/span><\/td>\r\n10.8%<\/span>#4 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
9.1%<\/span>#10 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
3RD DOWN CONVERSION %<\/span>Conversions \/ attempts, from teamstats; includes official team conversions<\/span><\/td>\r\n48.2%<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
39.2%<\/span>#14 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS %<\/span>nflverse success on plays snapped inside opponent's 20<\/span><\/td>\r\n50.0%<\/span>#5 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
44.7%<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
TEAM POINTS \/ GAME<\/span>Team points per game, all scoring phases<\/span><\/td>\r\n28.00<\/span>#5 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
22.38<\/span>#19 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
GIVEAWAYS \/ GAME<\/span>Total giveaways per game; lower is better<\/span><\/td>\r\n0.71<\/span>#4 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
1.00<\/span>#10 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<\/tbody><\/table><\/div>
Bars indicate league rank (longer is better), not the numerical value of the statistic. Rankings use full-precision database values.<\/div><\/div><\/section>\r\n\r\n

02 \/ TEAM PROFILE<\/p>

Defensive efficiency<\/h2>

Opponent efficiency, scoring, and defensive impact statistics.<\/p><\/div>NFL RANKS \u00b7 MIXED DIRECTIONS<\/span><\/div>\r\n

\r\n\r\n
STATISTIC<\/th>JAX<\/th>BAL<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
EPA \/ PLAY ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent EPA per eligible offensive play<\/span><\/td>\r\n-0.099<\/span>#4 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
+0.013<\/span>#18 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
SUCCESS RATE ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent nflverse play success percentage<\/span><\/td>\r\n42.2%<\/span>#11 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
44.4%<\/span>#21 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
YARDS \/ PLAY ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent yards gained per eligible play<\/span><\/td>\r\n5.64<\/span>#23 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
5.34<\/span>#14 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
EPA \/ DROPBACK ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent EPA on QB dropbacks<\/span><\/td>\r\n-0.050<\/span>#6 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
+0.057<\/span>#17 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
EPA \/ RUSH ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent EPA on designed rushes, excluding scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n-0.192<\/span>#1 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
-0.055<\/span>#23 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
EXPLOSIVE RATE ALLOWED<\/span>20+ yard opponent dropbacks or 10+ yard designed rushes<\/span><\/td>\r\n7.8%<\/span>#9 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
7.8%<\/span>#10 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
OPP 3RD DOWN CONV %<\/span>Opponent conversions \/ attempts<\/span><\/td>\r\n35.0%<\/span>#9 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
39.6%<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
RED ZONE PLAY SUCCESS ALLOWED<\/span>Opponent nflverse play success inside the 20; not drive scoring rate<\/span><\/td>\r\n30.6%<\/span>#2 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
49.5%<\/span>#25 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
OPP POINTS \/ GAME<\/span>Opponent points per game, including all scoring phases<\/span><\/td>\r\n15.86<\/span>#2 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
25.38<\/span>#22 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
OPP COMPLETION %<\/span>Opponent completions \/ pass attempts<\/span><\/td>\r\n66.5%<\/span>#28 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
65.5%<\/span>#21 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
SACKS \/ GAME<\/span>Sacks by defense per game<\/span><\/td>\r\n2.00<\/span>#22 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
2.12<\/span>#21 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
INTERCEPTIONS \/ GAME<\/span>Interceptions generated per game<\/span><\/td>\r\n1.29<\/span>#2 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
0.50<\/span>#24 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
TAKEAWAYS \/ GAME<\/span>Total takeaways per game<\/span><\/td>\r\n1.71<\/span>#3 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
1.00<\/span>#21 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
TACKLES FOR LOSS \/ GAME<\/span>Credited tackles for loss, from nflverse team stats; may overlap sacks<\/span><\/td>\r\n3.57<\/span>#26 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
5.12<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
FORCED FUMBLES \/ GAME<\/span>Credited forced fumbles<\/span><\/td>\r\n0.57<\/span>#26 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
0.88<\/span>#12 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
PASSES DEFENDED \/ GAME<\/span>Credited passes defended, from nflverse team stats; not necessarily identical to pass breakups<\/span><\/td>\r\n4.57<\/span>#15 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
3.50<\/span>#28 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
OPP FUMBLES RECOVERED \/ GAME<\/span>Recoveries of opponent fumbles, from nflverse team stats; all phases<\/span><\/td>\r\n0.43<\/span>#21 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
0.50<\/span>#18 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
QB HITS \/ GAME<\/span>Credited QB hits, may overlap sacks<\/span><\/td>\r\n6.43<\/span>#13 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
6.62<\/span>#9 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
STUFFED RUN RATE<\/span>Opponent designed rushes gaining zero or fewer yards; excludes scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n19.7%<\/span>#10 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
20.5%<\/span>#8 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
HAVOC RATE<\/span>Eligible plays with sack, TFL, interception, forced fumble, or pass breakup; counted once<\/span><\/td>\r\n15.3%<\/span>#14 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
13.9%<\/span>#22 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
PASSING HAVOC RATE<\/span>Havoc on opponent QB dropbacks, including sacks and scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n18.5%<\/span>#16 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
16.2%<\/span>#28 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n
RUSHING HAVOC RATE<\/span>Havoc on opponent designed rushing plays, excluding scrambles<\/span><\/td>\r\n9.2%<\/span>#17 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td>\r\n
10.3%<\/span>#13 \/ 32<\/span>
<\/div><\/div><\/td><\/tr>\r\n\r\n<\/tbody><\/table><\/div>
Bars indicate league rank (longer is better), not the numerical value of the statistic. Rankings use full-precision database values.<\/div><\/div><\/section>\r\n\r\n

03 \/ HEAD-TO-HEAD<\/p>

Where the matchups tilt<\/h2>

Each offense against the opposing defense.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\r\n

\r\n
MATCHUP A \/ JAX BALL<\/span>

Jacksonville Jaguars offense vs. Baltimore Ravens defense<\/h3>
JAX offensive EPA<\/small>+0.161<\/b>#3 NFL<\/small><\/article>
BAL EPA allowed<\/small>+0.013<\/b>#18 NFL<\/small><\/article><\/div>

JAX passing EPA: +0.262 (#3). BAL passing EPA allowed: +0.057 (#17).<\/p><\/article>\r\n

MATCHUP B \/ BAL BALL<\/span>

Baltimore Ravens offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars defense<\/h3>
BAL offensive EPA<\/small>+0.023<\/b>#14 NFL<\/small><\/article>
JAX EPA allowed<\/small>-0.099<\/b>#4 NFL<\/small><\/article><\/div>

BAL rushing EPA: -0.072 (#16). JAX rushing EPA allowed: -0.192 (#1).<\/p><\/article>\r\n<\/div><\/section>\r\n

04 \/ THE READOUT<\/p>

Four numbers worth knowing<\/h2><\/div><\/div>\r\n
\r\n
01 \/ TWO-WAY PROFILE<\/span>

JAX: #3 offense, #4 defense<\/h3>

Jacksonville Jaguars averages +0.161 EPA\/play on offense and allows -0.099 on defense.<\/p><\/article>\r\n

02 \/ GROUND GAME<\/span>

BAL run offense vs. JAX run defense<\/h3>

Baltimore Ravens has -0.072 rushing EPA\/play (#16). Jacksonville Jaguars allows -0.192 rushing EPA\/play (#1).<\/p><\/article>\r\n

03 \/ AIR ATTACK<\/span>

JAX pass offense vs. BAL pass defense<\/h3>

Jacksonville Jaguars generates +0.262 passing EPA\/play (#3); Baltimore Ravens allows +0.057 (#17).<\/p><\/article>\r\n

04 \/ SUCCESS RATE<\/span>

Play-to-play consistency<\/h3>

JAX success rate: 47.5% (#7) vs. BAL: 45.6% (#12). On defense: JAX 42.2% allowed (#11), BAL 44.4% (#21).<\/p><\/article>\r\n<\/div><\/section>\r\n

\r\n

05 \/ GFA MODEL<\/p>

Predicted final score<\/h2>

Historically trained NFL score projection, using only prior-game team form.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
\"Jacksonville
JAGUARS<\/div>
26<\/div><\/div>\r\n
VS<\/div>\r\n
\"Baltimore
RAVENS<\/div>
20<\/div><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
\r\nProjected spread:<\/strong> JAX -6.0<\/span>\r\nProjected total:<\/strong> 46.2<\/span>\r\nVenue:<\/strong> BAL home<\/span>\r\n<\/div><\/div>\r\n

The model was trained on 2021\u20132024 regular-season games, evaluated on unseen 2025 games, then refitted through 2025. In the 2025 holdout (272 games), its average absolute score error was 7.53 points per team<\/strong> (simple baseline: 7.55). Winner accuracy: 60.2%. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees; injuries, lineup changes, and weather are not included. Data reflects all completed games available at generation time.<\/p>\r\n<\/section>\r\n\r\n<\/main>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jaguars vs. Ravens A data-first view of offensive efficiency, defensive resistance, and the statistical edges that shape this matchup. Figures combine nflverse play-by-play, credited team statistics, and season team totals. Jacksonville JaguarsJAXJacksonville Jaguars VS Baltimore RavensBALBaltimore Ravens 01 \/ TEAM PROFILE Offensive efficiency Season-to-date efficiency, production, and situational performance. NFL RANKS \u00b7 MIXED DIRECTIONS STATISTIC… Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Preview | 2026 Week 9<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"off","neve_meta_content_width":70,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[145,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analytics","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nJacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Preview | 2026 Week 9<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens Preview | 2026 Week 9\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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